Tips Central

TIPPING
By Julian de Stoop
National Nine News sports reporter

The AFL this week, in Melbourne at least, has been overshadowed by the soccer friendly between Australia and Greece at the MCG.

But there should be another big crowd at the MCG on Friday night for the match of the round between Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs. If the Pies win this one, they'll go a long way to securing a top four berth.

Last week I tipped six winners … let's hope for a similar result this week.

Collingwood vs Western Bulldogs

Last week: the Pies destroyed Geelong while the Dogs fell short against the Swans in Sydney.

Last time: the Dogs destroyed the Pies in the final round of last year by 41 points.

Watch for: if it's a fine night, the Pies to expose the Dogs lack of height.

Prediction: Collingwood by 18 points Collingwood has shown they are the real deal in the past fortnight, with an honourable loss to West Coast and a 100-point win over Geelong. They're injury free and the improvement of young players such as Heath Shaw and Dane Swan has been phenomenal. The Dogs aren't playing bad football but have lost three of their past four matches. Their lack of height is beginning to hurt and the Pies, with Anthony Rocca, Chris Tarrant and Josh Fraser, can really expose them in this area. The Pies still aren't the quickest side in the league, but what they can do is win the ball. As long as they can hold their own through the middle, they will win.

Geelong vs Richmond

Last week: the Cats were embarrassed by Collingwood while Richmond stunned the Crows.

Last time: in an ugly match in round 22 last year, Geelong won by one point.

Watch for: Geelong to man up if Richmond play their keepings off game this week.

Prediction: Geelong by 31 points. Last week was probably Geelong's worst performance under Mark Thompson and he's been coach for seven years. While the players were disgraceful, the coach too has to take some blame. For some reason he has the Cats playing an ultra-defensive style of game which simply isn't working. Speaking of defensive, the Tigers took chipping the ball around to new levels last week against the Crows, but it got the required result. I'm sure the Tigers won't be making this style of game a habit. They will look to squeeze the Cats but Geelong simply has to win this one to remain in finals contention.

Adelaide vs Carlton

Last week: Adelaide suffered a shock loss against the Tigers while Carlton were terrible against St Kilda.

Last time: the Crows won a low-scoring affair at home by 14 points.

Watch for: Carlton to adopt similar tactics to Richmond in an attempt to frustrate the Crows.

Prediction: Adelaide by 49 points. If there's ever a certainty in football, it's an Adelaide win this week. The Crows are too good to lose two in a row to lowly opposition and they will be embarrassed by what they served up against Richmond last week. Carlton too were embarrassing and coach Denis Pagan must be scratching his head as to why the Blues can be so bad after a good win the week before. Like Richmond, they don't have the ability to go head to head with Adelaide, so expect to see Pagan drop plenty of numbers back in defence. It won't be pretty but the Crows will cruise to victory.

Essendon vs Port Adelaide

Last week: Essendon were brave in defeat against West Coast while Port were smashed at home by Brisbane.

Last time: Port overran Essendon at home in the wet to win by 19 points.

Watch for: the pressure to mount on the losing coach.

Prediction: Essendon by 21 points. Both teams are enduring terrible seasons and both look certain to finish in the bottom four. In recent years the Power have had it all over Essendon but with key players Chad Cornes and Peter Burgoyne missing through injury the Bombers should win this one. Warren Tredrea has been Essendon's nemesis in many of their recent matches but he's struggling with a knee problem. Dustin Fletcher should be able to keep him in check. The Bombers showed plenty of spirit against the Eagles last week while the Power showed little against Brisbane. They will be better this week but the Bombers simply won't lose eight in a row.

Hawthorn vs Sydney

Last week: Hawthorn were thrashed by Melbourne while Sydney won an entertaining contest against the Dogs.

Last time: Sydney steamrolled the Hawks at the MCG.

Watch for: The Hawks to respond after criticism from president Jeff Kennett during the week.

Prediction: Sydney by 25 points. It's been a disruptive week for the Hawks to say the least. Not only has captain Richard Vandenberg been to the tribunal twice fighting a striking charge, but president Jeff Kennett has questioned the team's attitude on the club's website. This wouldn't please coach Alastair Clarkson as he tries to turn around a lean period for the club which has yielded three straight losses. On the other hand, things couldn't be better for Sydney. They've won four straight and their attacking play is definitely better than last year. The Hawks weakness is definitely their backline, so expect Barry Hall, Michael O'Loughlin, Adam Goodes and Ryan O'Keefe to have another field day. Hawthorn will be more competitive this week after failing to score in the last quarter, but it won't be enough to stop the reigning premiers from making it five straight wins.

Brisbane vs Fremantle

Last week: Brisbane thrashed Port in Adelaide while the Dockers cruised to victory over the Kangaroos.

Last time: the Lions defeated the Dockers by 39 points at Subiaco.

Watch for: plenty of support from the Lions fans for their favourite son Jason Akermanis.

Prediction: Brisbane by 8 points. While the spotlight at Brisbane in the past fortnight has been on Jason Akermanis, their return to form has gone relatively unnoticed. Much of the credit for the turnaround must go to power forward Jonathan Brown. He's kicked 15 goals in two weeks while Daniel Bradshaw chipped in last week with six. Youngster Jared Brennan has also improved his form, giving the Lions a potent forwardline. Fremantle's form has been typically inconsistent and if they're a serious contender this is the sort of match they need to win. They too have a superstar forward in Matthew Pavlich, who kicked six goals last week. This should be an entertaining affair but the Lions should win at home.

St Kilda vs Kangaroos

Last week: St Kilda made Carlton look silly while the Roos were no match for the Dockers.

Last Time: the Saints led all day to win by 23 points.

Watch for: Nick Riewoldt and Fraser Gehrig to continue their dominance over the Roos.

Prediction: St Kilda by 34 points. Trying to get a formline on St Kilda is a nightmare. After last week's win over Carlton most think the Saints are back on track but they're just as likely this week to lose to the struggling Kangaroos. The most pleasing thing for the Saints was the form of Nick Riewoldt who kicked nine goals. This week he plays his 100th game. To put it bluntly, the Roos have gone backwards this year. They've won just two of their first eight matches and they could well finish in the bottom four after making the finals last year. Their young players simply haven't developed and their veterans such as Shannon Grant, Glenn Archer and Adam Simpson are starting to slow down. The Saints have struggled to win two in a row this year, but this match shouldn't be a problem.

West Coast vs Melbourne

Last week: The Eagles overcame a gritty Essendon while the Demons had no problems with Hawthorn.

Last time: West Coast won an entertaining game at the MCG by 15 points.

Watch for: Melbourne to replicate Essendon's tactics and rough up Chris Judd.

Prediction: West Coast by 9 points. This could be the match of the round. The Eagles are a better side than the one that made the Grand Final last year while Melbourne are shaping up as a genuine premiership contender after five straight wins. They'll start the underdogs in this one but they play pretty well at Subiaco. Like Collingwood, their improvement has come from within through youngsters such as Matthew Bate, Linden Dunn, Brock McLean, Mark Jamar and Nathan Carroll. The underrated James McDonald is likely to get the job on Brownlow favourite Chris Judd. Eagles full forward Quinten Lynch played one of his best games for the club last week, kicking four goals, while Daniel Chick underlined his importance with five. This should be close but you simply can't tip against West Coast at home.

© National Nine News 2006