Melbourne is al-Qaeda's most likely terror target in Australia, according to a terrorism expert.
The APEC heads of government meeting and the looming federal election have increased the chances of an attack on Australian soil over the next 12 months, terrorism expert Robert Pape has told The Australian newspaper.
Professor Pape said the al-Qaeda blueprint for launching attacks on the back of major events or in the lead-up to national elections was likely to make Australia a target.
Prof Pape, a political scientist from the University of Chicago, this week briefed staff at the federal Attorney-General's department about his research.
He said the conditions in Australia next year mirrored those in Spain and Britain before the Madrid and London bombings in 2004 and 2005, and the high security surrounding APEC would lead al-Qaeda to target another big city such as Melbourne.
"It leaves us with a very good reason for Australia to be concerned about an attack in the short term," Prof Pape told the newspaper.
Attorney-General Philip Ruddock said Prof Pape's observations "mirror what I have been saying for some time - that the threat Australia faces is very real and that an attack is feasible".
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