Gay cowboy romance "Brokeback Mountain" has left its competition in the dust, surging to the front of the Oscars race just as voters cast their ballots for next week's Academy Awards nominations.
Taiwanese director Ang Lee's story of forbidden macho love in 1960s Wyoming got a huge boost by reining in four Golden Globe Awards, Hollywood's second-highest plaudits, just five days before polls were to close ahead of the January 31 unveiling of nominees for the 78th annual Oscars.
The 5,798 Academy members had until Saturday evening to fill out their nomination ballots and hand them in to auditors, who will tally the votes under great secrecy and determine the identity of the nominees in 24 categories.
But Hollywood pundits are already convinced that in a lacklustre awards season, dominated by smaller independent movies rather than major studio productions, "Brokeback" is the unequivocal early favourite for the top Oscars.
"'Brokeback' is way, way out front and was given major momentum by coming out the most honoured movie at Monday's Golden Globes," said Tom O'Neil, writer for the GoldDerby.com and the Los Angeles Times's TheEnvelope.com.
"But the race isn't over yet, and a lot could happen between now and the Oscars ceremony in March," he said of the prospects of the film starring Australian Heath Ledger and American Jake Gyllenhaal.
"Brokeback" is based on a short story by Annie Proulx and tells of two farmhands in rural America who fall in love and maintain an unfulfilled relationship over two decades. Lee won the best director Golden Globe for his interpretation.
The Johnny Cash biopic "Walk the Line," starring Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon, is also a hot Oscars contender and is considered by many a favourite for best picture, best actor and best actress nominations, after picking up three Globes, including best musical, best actor and best actress.
"'Brokeback Mountain' and 'Walk the Line' are now the Oscars frontrunners, and I think that 'Capote' is a potential winner with good strength, not only for Philip Seymour Hoffman but also as a potential best picture nominee and winner," said Marty Grove, columnist for the HollywoodReporter.com.
Hoffman won the Golden Globe for best actor in a drama -- beating out Ledger for the prize -- for his startling turn as US author Truman Capote in the story of the circumstances surrounding the writing of his book "In Cold Blood."
George Clooney's politically charged drama "Good Night, and Good Luck," the story of 1950s US television anchorman Edward Murrow's crusade against the communist witchhunt of Senator Joseph McCarthy, is also seen as a likely best picture and best director contender at the Oscars.
Also vying for Oscar nods is Paul Haggis's racial drama "Crash," starring Sandra Bullock, Don Cheadle and Matt Dillon, which O'Neil said could make a strong showing in the Oscars, despite its low awards profile so far.
"Crash" and "Good Night, and Good Luck" could be serious competition down the line for "Brokeback," O'Neil told AFP, warning that the Clooney film may yet snatch the best picture and best director statuettes from "Brokeback" and Lee.
But, experts said, while major studio epics -- including Peter Jackson's much-vaunted remake of "King Kong," starring Naomi Watts, and "Munich," Steven Spielberg's drama about Israel's hunt for Palestinian terrorists -- may win some Oscar nods, they are unlikely to dominate the awards.
Creating additional uncertainty in this year's race is the fact that Oscars organisers pushed back the ceremony to March 5 from February, creating an awards season vacuum in usually frantic February.
"There is this wild card this year, as the season is interrupted after the guild awards in January and then resumes in March, which could give Oscar voters the time to get bored and change their minds about their early favourites before the Oscars," O'Neil said.
The very influential Producers Guild awards will be given out on Sunday, the Directors Guild honours will be doled out on January 28 and the critical Screen Actors Guild awards will be handed out on January 29 -- more than a month before the Oscars.
"We'll have to wait and see whether this will be a boring Oscars year, where the outcome will be clear from the day of the nominations, or whether it will be one full of suspense and surprises," O'Neil said.
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