01.07 am, Wednesday May 23 2012

Alzheimers sufferers to quadruple

00:11 AEDT Thu May 20 2010
By Michelle Draper
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Victoria needs to start planning now for an expected quadrupling in the number of people suffering from dementia over the next 40 years, Alzheimer's Australia says.

An Access Economics study commissioned by the organisation estimates the number of Victorian dementia sufferers will balloon from about 66,000 in 2010 to 246,000 in 2050.

The 275 per cent rise will be driven largely by population growth and ageing baby boomers, the report says.

But other risk factors such as reduced physical activity will also play a part in the predicted spike.

The prevalence of dementia over each decade increases at a faster rate than the number of people aged 70 and over, the study found.

Alzheimer's Australia chief executive Lynette Moore said the baby boomers, who start turning 65 this year, would enter high-risk age groups for dementia over the next 40 years.

She said more funds were needed in all phases of dealing with the disease, from diagnosis through to quality care and prevention.

"We're seeing proportionately more people with dementia as the decades progress," Ms Moore told AAP.

"We need to fund dementia now for the future, into the care, research and promotion of risk reduction."

The study mapped projected numbers of dementia sufferers in local government areas, with Greater Geelong expected to have the most cases over the 40-year period, followed by the Mornington Peninsula.

Ms Moore said the figures were relative to population numbers in those areas.

Melbourne growth corridors on the city's outskirts will begin to show a higher number of cases in 2030 and 2050, Ms Moore said.

Over the 40-year period, the number of sufferers in Melton and Wyndham, in the west, is predicted to increase by 833 per cent and 623 per cent, respectively, while Cardinia in the east will experience a 683 per cent jump and Melbourne numbers will climb 643 per cent.

The report found the highest number of dementia cases would be in metropolitan areas, but rural and regional areas would be affected because older people tended to live outside cities.

Access Economics director Lynne Pezzullo said the report had implications for Victoria's health planning.

"For Victoria, it means that it's to plan services particularly in areas where there's going to be a particularly high rise in dementia prevalence," Ms Pezzullo said.

Ms Moore said that up to $12 million a year was needed for dementia initiatives in Victoria.

Alzheimer's Australia last year estimated an extra $1 billion would be needed nationwide over the next five years to tackle the "dementia epidemic".

 

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