01.53 am, Thursday May 24 2012

ETS modelling out of date: expert

15:15 AEDT Mon Feb 2 2009
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Treasury modelling of the federal government's planned emissions trading scheme must take into account the global financial downturn, a former head of the nation's commodities forecaster says.

A report prepared by Dr Brian Fisher for a Senate committee investigating the scheme casts doubt over official estimates of its impact.

The scheme aims to cut carbon emissions by five per cent by 2020, but the cuts will be boosted to 15 per cent if other nations jump on board.

The report says scheme stakeholders need information that takes into account updated growth and International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts.

"The global financial crisis and its flow-on to the real economy has altered dramatically the context in which Australia will be introducing an ETS," Dr Fisher said.

The former head of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) calls for a formal review of Australia's response for the next round of global climate change talks in Copenhagen.

His report says Australia should also begin a "significant, pre-emptive diplomatic effort" in Europe and the United States to encourage a global response.

 

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