A federal government backbencher has dismissed Labor's poor standing with voters, using his academic background to argue opinion polls are not predictive of an election result.
Four different polls in a fortnight have the coalition holding an election-winning lead over Labor of between six and seven percentage points.
If the same result played out on election day, Labor would face a heavy defeat.
But Andrew Leigh says research he was involved in while an academic at the Australian National University shows polls taken at this time of the electoral cycle are no indicator of an election result.
"They have absolutely none," the Labor MP told ABC Television on Monday.
Dr Leigh was responding to the first Nielsen poll of 2012 showing support for Prime Minister Julia Gillard and the government improving over parliament's summer recess.
Ms Gillard (48 per cent) hurdled Tony Abbott to be preferred prime minister (46 per cent) but Kevin Rudd remains the voters' choice as Labor leader.
Labor's primary vote rose four points to 33 per cent while the coalition lost four points to 45 per cent.
After preferences, the coalition leads Labor 53-47 per cent, continuing the trend of earlier polls.
Cabinet minister Craig Emerson believes the Nielsen result means a Labor election victory is achievable, noting one could be 18 months away.
"Obviously we have a lot more work to do," he told ABC Radio.
Nielsen pollster John Stirton says the government appears to have recovered from its worst period following the announcement of a carbon tax in early 2011.
Labor's two-party preferred position is the best it has been since November 2010 when it trailed the coalition by four points.
"I think that what this poll is saying ... Labor's worst period is probably over," he told ABC Radio.
Liberal MP Kelly O'Dwyer agreed with Dr Leigh that little could be read into opinion polls.
"But what the polls can't disguise is that Julia Gillard and her government are in complete disarray," she told ABC Television.
Ms O'Dwyer said Sunday's "crisis meeting" of the Labor caucus and the fact that 20 per cent of the caucus did not attend the talks showed the strain on Ms Gillard's leadership.
Mr Abbott said better government was needed to address the poor perception voters had of both himself and Ms Gillard.
The Nielsen poll shows 57 per cent of voters disapproved of the prime minister's performance while 54 per cent disapproved of the opposition leader.
Mr Abbott contrasted with a "shambolic" government what the coalition had to offer the electorate, citing its plans for a stronger economy, a cleaner environment, better infrastructure and more secure borders.
"Australians are yearning for better government. That's what they would get under the coalition," he told reporters in Canberra.
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